Trump card

‘Trump’ can mean to outdo or outflank the opposition. It stands to reason that, to achieve this, an element of surprise is required. I think it’s fair to say that so far, on the question of relations with the EU and Russia (including Ukraine, to whichever evil empire it might succumb) Trump has trumped with a series of surprises.

Trump’s unilateral stance vis-à-vis Putin, especially decreeing that Ukraine can’t join NATO, certainly caught the EU – and Zelensky – (and me) by surprise. The EU naïvely assumed that they would be involved in ‘peace’ negotiations from the get-go. Boy are they not happy at the thought of being sidelined. My personal view is that Trump hasn’t behaved diplomatically or courteously to his allies, no matter how childishly most of them have treated him over the years. Further, I loathe the idea of any concessions Trump might allow Putin, such as the permanent annexation of land that is rightfully Ukraine. I’m fearful that Putin will agree to peace, only to regroup and set to again a few years down the line, this time not stopping at Ukraine. Mostly, I feel for the Ukraines. It’s their country and they and their leaders should decide how best to extricate themselves from this dreadful war, not their adversary in cahoots with an omnipotent foreign leader and impotent EU autocrats, bureaucrats and technocrats.

Why on earth would Trump do that?

One answer is another question: do what? Trump hasn’t done anything tangible yet. He’s lobbed one of his non-binding metaphorical grenades and is currently chuckling into his diet coke at the consequential bully and bluster from all the inconsequential naked emperors. In the end, he might well do what he says on the tin, but he’s Trump and he might not.

If I were a gambler, and I’m not, my sole vice being a thimble of gin a couple of nights a week, I’d bet that Trump will negotiate with Putin, unfettered by EU concerns. Exactly what he’ll negotiate is still up in the air, so let’s deal just with Trump’s solo antics: why would he not want to involve the EU or even Zelensky (whom I admire partly for his dress sense and eloquence compared to gobnail-boot-in-mouth Rayner).

Oh, where do I start! The EU is partly to blame for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine so, understandably, they aren’t to be trusted. Three years ago, I blogged all about it (here) but I wasn’t explicit enough about one thing in particular. The EU had promised it wouldn’t expand to include ex-Soviet states like Poland, Hungary and ‘Yugoslavia’. The EU broke its promise. No wonder Putin’s paranoia kicked in, and he kicked back. How / Why did the EU not see this coming?

Then when the invasion was in full swing some EU states, mentioning no names like Germany, part-funded Putin’s war effort by continuing to buy Russian gas. The EU was also slow at responding to Zelensky’s pleas for aid. Thank goodness for BoJo, eh? Oh, come on! If you support Ukraine, which I really really really hope you do, then BoJo is King, complete with four-and-twenty blackbirds baked in his cake. Starmer is clinging to Trump’s coattails more than the EU can, thanks to Boris, but Trump can’t trust Starmer, given Labour’s previous (and continuing, in some quarters) personal insults, tangible support for Ham-fisted Harris and, as Rupert Lowe MP tweeted this morning, “We can't even protect our own borders, and Starmer is aiming to put British troops on the ground in Ukraine." Trump knows that.

Which brings me to Starmer’s and the EU’s clampdown on free speech that Vance insightfully identified as a bigger threat to western democracy than Russia. Unlike his critics who – as boring usual – took their cue from Guardian soundbites, I watched and listened to Vance’s speech in toto. He was charming, polite and eloquent while delivering the truth, the truth being that the EU and of course Starmer Stalin’s Britain are no longer the havens of democratic discussion they like to think they are. A classic piece of satire about public consultations in Blighty is that communities are told that an unwanted development is going ahead on this field on these terms, but we can choose the colour of the gates. Said quip has been updated to reflect the fact that we can comment as much as we like about heinous crimes committed up and down the country, as long as we all agree that diversity is our strength, multiculturalism has worked, and mental illness / marijuana abuse is the trigger for criminal activity, not adherence to alien sub-cultures and subversion of Blighty. Each and every time. No quarter is brooked. Jails are emptied of violent thugs in order to accommodate those who pedal a dissenting rhetoric.

The reaction of the EU to Vance’s speech is to shriek and slobber that his interference in internal European affairs isn’t welcome. Pot-Kettle-Black. (Oooh I said the B word. That’s a NCHI if ever there was one.) The EU has made no secret of its dislike of Trump, openly briefing against him in favour of a senile crook and a word-salad bimbo. Furthermore, the EU welcomed interference from Obama, who did what he could to sway Britain towards Remoan. Spoiler alert: he failed.

To sum up: I don’t trust Trump, and I don’t like foreign powers interfering in others’ domestic politics, but I trust Starmer Stalin and the EU-couldn’t-make-it-up even less. And I really feel for Ukraine and Zelensky.